Early business cases from the WiMAX community showed attractive potential returns from a variety of environments – from both developing and developed markets, and in urban, suburban and rural settings.
But a report from UK-based researchers Analysys says “more realistic modelling reveals there may be very few situations in which WiMAX has a secure long-term business case.
The ‘Business Case for WiMAX’ report says that developing countries offered few real opportunities for WiMAX, despite being cited previously as the standard’s prime opportunity.
While WiMAX had the opportunity to “seize control” of broadband markets in developing countries that did not have fixed-line infrastructure, the report says a low-level of disposable income in those markets low PC penetration limited growth rates and limited attractive ARPU (average revenue per user).
Voice telephony would be the most important service to users in developing countries – and most already had low-cost mobile services with low-cost handsets. The relatively high cost of WiMAX customer premises equipment (CPE) was another barrier in developing countries.
Developed markets were attractive to potential WiMAX operators in only in a special set of circumstances.
“In developed markets, head-to-head competition with DSL could be disastrous for WiMAX. DSL performance is continually advancing, and operators are offering new services such as IPTV,” Analysys’ US Head of Research Jason Kowal said.
“WiMAX operators will struggle to carve out a significant share of the fixed broadband market, confining them to the much smaller, and somewhat uncertain, opportunity of mobile broadband access,” Mr Kowal said.
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