The findings of the Nemertes Research study indicate that by 2010, the Internet’s capacity will not likely accommodate user demand and users could increasingly encounter internet “brownouts” or interruptions to the applications they’ve become accustomed to using. It may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase or it longer to download the latest video from YouTube.
“The immediate impact of the inadequate infrastructure will be to slow the pace of innovation, Nemertes warned. The next Amazon, Google or YouTube might not arise – not from a lack of user demand, but because of insufficient infrastructure preventing applications and companies from emerging,” the report said.
The investment required to bridge the gap between growing demand and capacity was between US$42 billion (A$48 billion) and US$55 billion for the US market alone. And this required investment is above and beyond the US$72 billion that service providers are already planning to invest.
The new study, from Nemertes Research, found the required investment globally was estimated at US$137 billion. The research, titled to “The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web” indicates that Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years.
“This groundbreaking analysis identifies a critical issue facing the Internet – that we must take the necessary steps to build out network capacity or potentially face Internet gridlock that could wreak havoc on Internet services,” said Internet Innovation Alliance co-chairman Larry Irving.
“It’s important to note that even if we make the investment necessary between now and 2010, we still might not be prepared for the next killer application or new internet-dependent business like Google or YouTube,” Mr Irving said.
Nemertes Research president and senior founding partner Johna Till Johnson said: “This is the first study to independently model both Internet capacity and demand.”
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