But unlike other analysis of the net neutrality issue, IDC says regulatory decisions that favour the carriers initially will ultimately benefit the large scale internet incumbents like Google and eBay – the very companies that have campaigned heavily against net neutrality regulation.
The net neutrality debate in the US has been closely watched by regulators and policy-makers in Australia.
At the heart of the debate, according to IDC, is the issue of control and “monetization” of broadband networks by the facilities-based carriers. The explosion in the use of video over the internet has changed industry dynamics.
IDC forecasts that the consumer-generated IP traffic in the US will be three-times heavier in 2011 than it is today. The magnitude of the growth in traffic signals an “obvious and critical” need for broadband network upgrades.
IDC says aggressive versions of net neutrality regulation would dampen this upgrading effort as facilities-based providers would be prevented from building networks that offer new services requiring higher speeds or quality of service (QoS).
Net neutrality proponents like Google probably already realise quality of service (QoS) is essential to the delivery of new services and may quietly modify their position and join the network prioritisation environment they currently oppose.
“Google will likely maintain a public-facing resistance to network control in the short term, but should be making behind the scenes plans to act quickly when the matter is settled and the opportunity materialises,” said IDC Consumer Multiplay Services program director Matt Davis.
"Being caught flat-footed when a game-changing development occurs makes disruption from smaller, hungrier players willing to deal with facilities-based providers much more likely,” Mr Davis said.
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